Trump economy, continues strong, November 2019 review

Trump Economy

Axios – The U.S. economy added 266,000 jobs in November, above the 187,000 economists expected, the government said on Friday, as the unemployment rate fell back to a 50-year low of 3.5%. 

In the actual government BLS report, it stated that notable job gains occurred in health care and in professional and technical services. Employment rose in manufacturing, reflecting the return of workers from the auto strikes. Among the marginally attached, there were 325,000 discouraged workers in November, down by 128,000 from a year earlier. CNBC’s Cramer on the jobs report says, “These are the best numbers of our lives.” See here his report:

Economy December 2019

But employment data is backward-looking. What does the future hold? To do this, we look to the PMI reports (see News Links on our home page to get the actual data portal). Please check out the inset chart to see the employment chart data and PMI chart data. Here is a brief world tour of the global PMIs:

  • China – PMI data signaled a further modest improvement in the health of China’s manufacturing sector – despite the “trade war.” Many believe it will resolve soon.
  • Europe – PMI improves to three-month high but signals ongoing contraction. Europe is suffering from immigration and its behemoth social states.
  • UK – PMI manufacturing contracts as political and economic uncertainty continues. But recent rises in the British Pound, due to Boris Johnson rising in the polls, indicates that this could this around soon.
  • Australian – PMI manufacturing conditions were broadly stagnant in November – largely due to Asian contagion.
  • Russia – PMI drops to lowest since May 2009 in November.
  • US – November PMI at seven-month high amid a stronger upturn in new orders.
  • Canada – Modest recovery in manufacturing performance continues in November – being pulled up by the US economy.
  • Global Manufacturing – PMI edges back into expansion territory. However, it is still largely stagnant, due to European and Asian contagion.

It is a bit of a “Tale of Two Cities” like report. The US is doing great, but the rest of the world is stagnating. Like many times in the past, the US is pulling up the rest of the world, though just marginally. If much of the political turmoil in the US and global trade issues can be resolved.

Looking at the inset chart on the SP500 index forecast we produced last month, we can just repost it here … it still intact and doing as planned. Stocks look to continue to zig-zag bumping up to new highs. This looks to continue in December. After the 2020 new year, a brief pullback and the march continues into the spring of 2020. No signs of stopping it.

News Forecasters has repeatedly said, if you like the economy now, it will be the same going on into the 2020 elections. Of course, as always, there is always a small chance some unrelated event could derail this forecast

 

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