We are rapidly approaching the 2020 presidential elections. One does not have to speculate much to know that this is a pivotal election. Will America go socialist or continue on its current path, a pseudo capitalist society. Pulling the rest of the world with it. Despite what you think of the current U.S. President Donald Trump, understanding his declared election chances will be critical in understanding what happens next on the global stage.
News Forecasters believes despite the other election swing states (Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pensylvania [maybe Ohio and Arizona as well]), Florida is the key swing state. Its 29 Electoral College votes, place it in the bullseye. Whoever wins Florida will likely become president in 2021. News Forecasters asks, with all else being the same, with current demographic change in Flordia, what effect may it have on this presidential election? With the following assumptions, please see below the detailed tabular calculation of the potential votes Trump could win in 2020:
- Population growth by county of Florida.
- Results of the 2016 Presidential election.
- Where people are moving to in Florida – 28% of Florida growth coming from the top 5 Florida counties (one could go deeper, though not likely to change the overall outcome), with 73% for the rest of Florida (reverse calculation of data).
|Florida County||Population 2019||Percent Population Growth (in 9 years)||Percent Won By in 2016||Net Votes 2016||Net Potential Votes 2020||Winning Party|
|Rest of Florida (73%)||16,068,222||7.4%||1.3%||864,090||1,150,046||Republican|
(*) Note this column can not be summed directly – weighting would need to be applied as a percent of the population – for worksheet click here.
Another analysis that needs to be considered is voter turn out. In 2016 the voter turn out was considered high, despite media reports suggesting that Hillary Clinton (Democratic Candidate for president in 2016) could not generate the excitement needed to say otherwise. Here is the voter turnout of recent presidential elections for Florida:
- 2016 – 75%
- 2012 – 72%
- 2008 – 75%
- 2004 – 74%
- 2000 – 70%
- 1996 – 67%
- 1992 – 83%
- 1988 – 73%
The suggestion on voter turn out is, that this statistical element will stay the same or be higher historically. Normally higher voter turnouts help the Democratic party. But in today’s political environment where the norms no longer hold, one can not say this. Can the next Democratic candidate do any worse than Hillary Clinton? News Forecasters for the moment believes historical norms will continue and this will not be the largest factor in the outcome of the 2020 presidential elections.
To answer the question of, with all things being the same who wins Flordia and potentially the U.S. presidential election in 2020? The short answer is – not Trump. Trump loses Florida by 28,000 votes and maybe the bell-weather for the other swing states as well. We have already explained this before, but this puts a little more detail on the subject to confirm our beliefs. Losing Florida places the presidential election in grave doubt for Trump and may even result in an Electoral College crisis. The point here is, that Trump will have to do better than he did in 2016.
All this being said, we did say, “all else being the same.” Much of the outcome will depend on who the Democratic candidate will be and the political dynamics at the time of the election. We are still compiling our data on whether Trump will be president in 2021, keep with News Forecasters and we will be shortly coming out with more on this topic.
A video presentation of this subject: