Hillary, in Philadelphia, told a TV interviewer a day later that she could beat Trump “again.” I suppose she is referring to the popular vote, as she didn’t win the first time the Electoral College. Hillary also ran in 2008 and lost the Democratic nomination to Barack Obama. She said in March 2019 that she’s “not running” this time but planned to “keep working and speaking and standing up for what I believe.” So Hillary is a presidential two-time loser.
So is Hillary running? News Forecasters asks whether Hillary Clinton will become a three-time loser or will it be the third time a charm? The first step Hillary would need to do, is jump into the Democratic primaries – how likely is that? To get in the Democratic primaries, the scheduling window is closing. It is different for each state, but most of these windows close at the beginning of December 2019. So now is the time to start making waves for a late entry in November – she has about 6 weeks to decide.
Joe Biden (76) may get caught up with potential Ukranian scandals in the Trump impeachment episode. Bernie Sanders (78) has recently suffered a heart attack, though he says he is back and ready – but doubts linger. Even Elizabeth Warren (70) is also having some issues, with here lying scandals – one about her American Indian origins and the more recently about her discrimination claims about being pregnant. The rest of the challengers on the Democrat sides are fairly distant – see polls.
Of course Hillary (71) herself is not scandal-free either. In terms of age, she is in the ballpark with all the other 70s age club. The other issue is Hillary’s health – this has been a lingering issue. Hillary would love to run again – if given the chance. Chelsea and Hillary Clinton are on their new book tour, “Gutsy Women.” News Forecasters believes that this could be a test run to see how the media would accept a Hillary candidacy. So far she has been received well. Media elites would love to see Hillary run – who wouldn’t want to see a Trump vs. Hillary the rematch? Think of all the clickbait revenue for the media.
If the other three major Democratic contenders (Biden, Sanders, and Warren) falter in the next 6 weeks Hillary might try. Thre is a lot of “ifs” to fall in line for Hillary. PredictIt asks, will Hillary Clinton run for president in 2020? In the inset chart, we can see, as of this post, it has about a 20% chance.
PredictIt market is a bit of stretch in today’s political environment, but News Forecasters would say that it does have about a 10 to 20% chance. The Democrats need to find a candidate more electable that is more center-left. The scandal gaff prone Joe Biden is the only significant candidate that can fulfill this need, the other candidates are too far left and may not be acceptable to the Democratic establishment. Room for Hillary to move in.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey found that Clinton and Trump earn 45% support each among likely U.S. voters – a tie. Biden fairs much better from the same Rasmussen polling, though this could change if Hillary declares. Not out of the realm of possibilities, but News Forecasters believes this possibility is quite low.
A video presentation of this subject: