Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (47) is in the spotlight after being mocked for images showing him in blackface, which have threatened to derail his re-election campaign. Pictures first emerged showing him in brown makeup at a 2001 Arabian Nights party when he was a 29-year-old teacher – then there were two other occurrences of his love for this behavior – he implied there could be more. Trudeau held a hasty press conference on his plane and apologized for the behavior. Will the voters accept this apology?
The 2019 Canadian federal election is scheduled to take place on October 21, 2019, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 43rd Canadian Parliament. Parliament was dissolved by Governor General Julie Payette on September 11, 2019, on the advice of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. News Forecasters asks, what is the likelihood that Trudeau will keep his post despite what some would call his poor job performance and the recent blackface revelations?
So we are about one month out from when Canada decides. Looking at the polls (see the inset chart), the Conservative party in the lead over the Liberal party, but not by much. In case you don’t know, Andrew James Scheer is Leader of the Conservative Party and Leader of the Official Opposition since 2017. Stephen Harper, the last Conservative winning leader, won with near 40% of the vote in 2011 – the Conservatives will need to poll near this same 40%. Scheer with his 35% current polling results, has not energized the Conservatives to win.
News Forecasters believes, that though Trudeau is in trouble, Canada is just too much of a left-leaning country to change course at this time – Trudeau wins, unless some other dynamic comes into the race. The Liberals (under the leadership of Trudeau) along with the NDP and Greens, will have just enough to form a ruling coalition. The weaker coalition might even skew Canada even further left.
A video presentation of this subject: