Dylann Roof, the white supremacist terrorist behind the 2015 Charleston massacre, which killed nine black churchgoers, issued his manifesto and stated he wanted to kick off a race war in America. Others have also chimed in and posed the concept of a race war beginning to be waged in our current politics.
News Forecasters asks, is a race war winnable? The short answer is – it depends. The key elements in winning a race war are an ideology, demographics, and economic power – leading to state power. Here is a brief outline of how to win and how to lose a race war. Note that we use the term “race war” loosely.
Type #1) To lose a race war – if the ideological basis of the race war is pure xenophobia (i.e. race or tribalism), the ideology will just devour itself, and the attacking group will make itself smaller and smaller until it becomes irrelevant. As we see in the existing race war going on in South Africa, at first it was against the whites, then migrates to foreign blacks from outside – living in South Africa, and then to subdividing the domestic black tribes into smaller groups. The group in power makes itself a minority. The effect is that it reduces economic power and hence its potential state power. It also will not help the demographics of the attacking group either.
All race wars have a genocidal tendency. To win with a xenophobic approach, one has to be a brutal authoritarian force. WWII German tried this in WWII – they were not successful. It creates an enemy that unites others due to the common threat. The opposition grows stronger and defeats the attacker. The leaders of these types of xenophobic based race wars are impatient and want power too quick before the demographic shift can occur – leading to its defeat.
Another example of a failed race war that followed this model was the Moors who invaded Europe (711 – 1492). The invasion of Western Europe by a non-White Muslim army that nearly extinguished Europe. The Moors, also known as the Saracens, were mixed-race of Arabic and black with remnants of southern Mediterranean races since ancient times. The Moors conquered nearly all of Spain and were only turned back from occupying all of Western Europe by a desperate white counterattack in France led by Charles Martel. Spain had entered a golden age and created a vast empire, along with Portugal, and became one of the most powerful nations in Europe.
Type #2) To win a race war – the attacking group must have an ideology that allows for minorities to have equal or shared power. The ideology is not race or tribe specific, but favors one’s ideological culture over the other. This allows the attacking group to grow economic power more than other groups. It can not have the appearance of a direct attack against other groups. This type of race war is typically won via demographics. The losing group, not being able to deal with the attacker’s ideology, can not adapt and by choice (or inadvertent events) loses via demographic shifts.
The genocidal tendency would not be an overt threat – physical force, though for sure, some public control would be in order. The lack of economic power of lesser groups causes them to have negative demographic shifts. Any genocide effects are inadvertent but real. If the attacker is patient, over time, the demographic change can occur.
An example of a successful race war won was in North America. Predominately with an indigenous native Indian population, European whites came to the continent with no prime objective of wiping out the native Indian. Instead, most wanted to carve out just a little stake individually, at least initially, and live in peace with other groups. The European whites began to build state power: such as property ownership and different forms of economic structures to grow. The native Indian could not adapt as they had a different cultural ideology that could not compete; they even inadvertently succumbed to genocidal diseases. With continued immigration of the European whites and a declining native Indian population, the European whites won.
Using these two models of race wars, what can we say about the current race wars going on today? Here are two significant race wars going on today and their likely outcome.
The Islamification of Europe. The current method of this race war being used is type #2 (as previously described). Unlike the Moors of the past, the current demographic invasion of Islam is mostly not violent. The indigenous European whites are not competing with the strong family ties of Islam, that creates the demographic change via birthrates. Using loose immigration policies, Islam is adapting to European constructs and using the tools of the social state to finance the patient invasion. As predicted by Muammar Gaddafi, News Forecasters believes this race war is winnable, though we shall see if there is a counter-attack in the making.
Identity politics in America. Identity politics is about prioritizing the concerns most relevant to their particular racial, religious, ethnic, sexual, social, cultural, or other identities. It seeks power by authoritarian state coercive power (type #2 as previously described). Often thought to be from the far-left political spectrum, but comes from the far-right political spectrum as well. Similar to the South African race war dynamics, it first attacks white men, but has gravitated to placing some women’s groups at odds with LGBTQ groups. Then there has always been negative racial dynamics among blacks and Hispanics. Identity politics will devour itself.
News Forecasters believes this race war is mostly not winnable. Identity Politics will eventually be defeated, though the demographic losers will be whites and blacks. The winners will be Hispanics due to the demographic change. The upside will be that when Identity Politics loses, the remaining groups may be able to live in peace if the ideology of the American Deam prevails to bind the groups together. This is not assured due to other global economic risk factors – a topic for another time.
As we always say, News Forecasters is not making a value judgment on these forms of race wars, merely pointing out what is likely to occur.
A video presentation of this subject: