Will Donald Trump be impeached in his first term?

Rep. Maxine Waters, D.-Calif., promised her supporters that she is very much devoted to pursuing impeachment of President Trump. Waters claims America cannot allow for its allies to think Trump was elected legitimately. “But guess what? They are going to believe it when we get rid of him.” The battle cry for Waters has been, “Impeach 45.” Will Waters get her wish?

Today another House member is supporting impeachment. 125 House Democrats and 1 independent now publicly support launching an impeachment inquiry against President Trump, according to an Axios analysis. Assistant Speaker Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.) came out in favor of an impeachment inquiry. He is the highest-ranking Democrat in the House to do so thus far, ranking 4th behind Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) and Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.). 16 of the 24 Democrats on the House Judiciary Committee publicly support an impeachment inquiry. 21 are needed to refer an impeachment resolution to the House floor. Speaker Nancy Pelosi has long wagered that impeachment would be fruitless without overwhelming public support.

PredictIt has a Trump impeachment now at a 25% possibility. During Donald Trump’s first term as president of the United States, the full U.S. House of Representatives shall, by simple majority vote, approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Trump. Neither trial nor conviction by the U.S. Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to cause this market to resolve as Yes. The odds are starting to swing against Trump?

Speaker Pelosi is privy to much more information than many of the House members. She understands well what the blowback politically will be, not to even consider that the impeachment would never happen in the Senate. It is mere grandstanding by Democrats that will do little, other than energize the Trump base. But it may go even deeper than this simple political calculation.

Trump has the controls to the power of the intelligence community, despite any deepstate beliefs. Whatever dirt on Trump is already public. BUT, the dirt on Democrats is just below the surface – the list is long of potentially embarrassing stories. In addition, the Justice Department inspector general’s forthcoming report on alleged FISA abuse will be “damning,” according to Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham.

Here is the calculation being made by both Trump and Pelosi. If Pelosi goes ahead with impeachment, many Democratic House members and Democratic operatives would get caught up in the snare – the impeachment hearings would just focus the public attention more on secrets best kept that way. In a sense, the two have a gun pointing at each other – for now, its stalemate.

The answer to the impeach 45 question is – not going to happen. This view might change if there are further revelations unknown today. Sorry, Maxine.

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