This year, as Iran observes the 40th year of its revolution, its geostrategic objectives remain unchanged, a call for the elimination of Israel. Over these four decades, hardly a day has passed without threats against Israel. As U.S. sanctions choke Iran, Hezbollah (an Iranian proxy terror group) reportedly is deploying for a war on Israel’s border. Israel is a key ally of the U.S. News Forecasters asks, when or will America go to war with Iran?
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps captured a UK-flagged, Sweden-owned, vessel for breaking “international maritime” rules in the Strait of Hormuz. Tanker traffic through the Strait – where a fifth of the world’s oil passes – has become the focus of a standoff between Iran and the US, which has beefed up its military presence in the Gulf. Then the British Royal Marines stopped and seized a tanker vessel (Grace 1) off the shore of Gibraltar on suspicion it carried Iranian crude oil to Syria in breach of European Union sanctions. Subsequently, after Gibraltar’s government said it had received assurances from Iran that Grace 1 would not sail to countries “subject to European Union sanctions (Syria,)” it is allowing for its release.
The US Justice Department has issued a warrant to seize a detained Iranian oil tanker, a day after a judge in Gibraltar ordered it to be released. The U.S. Justice Department said the ship and the firm had been involved in violations of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, bank fraud, money laundering, and terrorism forfeiture statutes. These type of tit for tat standoffs will continue.
Experts say Iran has the capability to build a nuclear weapon within a few years maybe even months. Iran confirmed that it has breached the limit on its stockpile of enriched uranium set by the 2015 nuclear deal – the deal that Trump pulled out of. But experts say the violation is more of a symbolic move than a concrete step toward obtaining a nuclear weapon. Most agree that Iran has the expertise and capability to eventually build such a device, it is not clear that Tehran has the intent or even sees the necessity of doing so. The U.S. will not allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons.
Tensions are rising. The U.S. is deploying troops in Saudi Arabia as tensions soar with its arch-rival Iran raising concerns over navigation in the Gulf’s strategic Strait of Hormuz. It will be the first deployment of its kind since 2003, when American forces withdrew from the kingdom after a 12-year presence and two US-led wars with Iraq that culminated with the toppling of dictator Saddam Hussein.
News Forecasters believes that the Trump administration does not want a war with Iran prior to the 2020 US Presidential elections. After all, Trump did call off a planned strike on Iran meant as a response to downing of a U.S. military drone. Yes, a U.S. internal political decision for Trump to be an anti-war peace presidential candidate. Iran may take advantage of this window of opportunity and skirmishes continue.
If Trump were to get re-elected, an Iran war comes back on the table as a possibility. Even if a Democratic president would be elected in 2020 the arc of history will be maintained – support for Israel. News Forecasters believes that without a regime change in Tehran, Iran will seek nuclear weapons. No U.S. President would allow for this – politically untenable. War could be inevitable.
However, Iran may go slow with its nuclear program, building its strength and wearing down its global political persecution, primarily with the EU. Popular revolution may occur in Iran, thereby circumventing its nuclear program to gain favor with the West. In any case, unless an accidental geopolitical flash event occurs, a war with Iran could be inevitable, but most likely 5 years away.
A video presentation of this subject: