To date, Joe Biden has been the front runner in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary process. This looks like it might be changing. Elizabeth Warren might be supplanting Joe Biden as the new front runner. Though Democrats may not like to hear this, but they can be just as tribal as Republicans. The minority candidates may be scaring many of the white liberal members. A key demographic Trump does not have, are white women (especially liberal) suburban voters. Elizabeth Warren is a benefactor for this tribal dynamic.
Here is the latest in the Democratic Presidential primary polling for August 14, 2019:
|2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination||Economist/YouGov||Biden 23, Warren 20, Sanders 16, Harris 8, Buttigieg 6, O’Rourke 5, Booker 2, Yang 2, Gabbard 2, Klobuchar 1, Castro 1, Steyer 1, Gillibrand 1|
Elizabeth Warren has been gaining at Biden’s expense. Harris, Buttigieg, O’Rourke, and Booker are still fading. Yang and Gabbard are lurking in the back of the pack – the sort of, “new ideas” wing of the Democratic party. “New ideas” in the sense that the candidate’s views are neither coming from traditional insider Democrats nor from the far left-wing of the party. Some key points in the past two weeks:
- The Joe Biden gaffe machine on the campaign trail is becoming a problem. Here is an example. Biden, being a center-left candidate, is alienating many of these potential voters by dabbling in Identity politics. The age issue still is ever-present.
- Bernie Sanders’ has been ranting about unfair media coverage – sound familiar? An example is his criticism that the Washington Post is biased against him because it is owned by Jeff Bezos – a target as part of the “1%” Sanders loves to attack. The age issue still is ever-present.
- There is some lingering fascination that exists with these “new ideas” candidates.
PredictIt indicates that Elizabeth Warren has just inched into the lead. Note the lack of confidence that Bernie Sanders can get any traction in the polls. This confirms what New Forecasters said two weeks ago, where we said our current (with qualifications) view of the 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary would be Elizabeth Warren.
We are a long way from the first primary votes being counted in February 2020. So this will be an evolving story. We may see a temporary flash from one of these “new ideas” to give the media something to talk about. New Forecasters still holds to its previous views two weeks ago.