John McAfee in a Twitter poop said, “Hateful words on both sides of the gun issue. Is civil war coming? If so, here’s my advice to both sides.” Some of his advice included; “arm yourselves to the fucking teeth with vastly superior Israeli weaponry,” “Colorado and New Mexico, I’m sorry, you’re surrounded. See if Mexico won’t annex you,” and “Florida, if you cannot sell it to Cuba, then blow the bridges and stock Piranha in all the swamps, that will keep them busy till the war is over.” Is McAfee crazy? Well kind of, but McAfee is not alone in pondering this question.
The U.S. political landscape has never been as divided as now, and with the 2020 presidential elections coming up, Doug Casey founder of Casey Research stated, “I think, as I’ve thought for a long time … we’re heading for a disaster of genuinely historic proportions.” Some blame Federal Reserve policy driving the wealth inequality to extremes, causing the politics of envy to emerge and put tribes against tribes. Still, others blame President Donald Trump with his incendiary rhetoric. News Forecasters explores this question; is a new American civil war coming and what would it look like?
Some believe Trump has pioneered a new politics of perpetual culture war, relentlessly rallying his supporters against kneeling athletes, undocumented immigrants, soft-on-crime, weak-on-the-border, pro-capitalism, fight wars only for profit and preventing foreign countries taking advantage of America via trade policies. Obviously Trump supporters, though agreeing with these policies, feel that Trump is merely taking back America to the “good ole days,” under an “America First” agenda.
News Forecasters believe that this culture war predates Trump back to at least the year 2010 under Barack Obama’s presidency. This is also the year(s) of the rise of the Social Justice Warrior (note in the inset chart the NYT fueling the cultural war fire starting near 2010). This movement included a time where; Black Lives Matters, legalization of same-sex marriages and LGBTQ rights, Ferguson and Baltimore racial riots, Trayvon Martin trial and police race brutality conflicts and accelerated gender rights – became center stage in the culture war.
Remember, many of the Trump supporters voted for Barack Obama, believing that he would heal the nation into unity. Instead, they feel that he threw gasoline on the cultural war. Coming out of the Great Recession starting in 2008, people were hurting. Social justice turns from a shield to a sword. America was ripe for social conflict and movements demanding change. The election of Trump in 2016 was a mere backlash of this. After Trump, nothing changes – the culture war continues (even accelerates) and so will talk of civil war.
Regardless of your beliefs on any of these policies, the culture war is real, and if allowed to continue will lead to civil war. This is why the stakes are high. News Forecasters believes that America is experiencing late stage empire decline. Excessive debt, overextended military power, political divides, over-promised social contracts, excessive wealth inequality, moral depravity, lack of purpose, a focus leisure and materialism, and excessive state power to keep the empire intact – are just to name a few late-stage empire characteristics.
There will be no left-wing utopia coming. However, the arc of history will be greater than any Trump-supporting movement. Trump is merely trying to hold off the inevitable. The American central state is too powerful and growing for any ragtag civil war uprising to have any material effect. There will be no civil war and there will be no winners in the cultural war, though for sure civil strife and domestic terrorism will be on the rise. Most likely some event will cause an economic catastrophe. This will turn into a decades-long decline of regional despair and malaise. In the end, the culture war will be forgotten, giving way to more pressing concerns – survival. The American central government will still be there to fend off potential foreign invasions, but essentially each region will be on their own. Demographic disunity will make each region resemble the original country from which they came from. Regional conflicts, crime, corruption, injustices, and criminal mafias will be the order of the day.
News Forecasters sees no foreign power ascending to empire status during this American decline, rather this Balkanization of America will be a global trend. This process could take decades maybe even centuries. In other parts of the world, there will be most likely regional geopolitical wars – a story for another article. Worrying about the next empire is probably fruitless to speculate, as it won’t be in any of our lifetimes. On an individual basis, you’ll just have to make your way through this maze of unfortunate realities.
A video presentation of this subject: