Latest 2020 Democratic presidential election forecast – August 2019

We have now had two Democratic party debates, and we are about 4 months away from some of the first votes to be counted in the Democratic primary. Currently, according to the polls, Joe Biden still is the clear front runner. For the most part, the field is still pretty much wide open. However, there are a few observations we can make to give us an indication who will be opposing Donald Trump in the US 2020 Presidential elections. This is News Forecasters’ current view of who will become the Democratic nominee, but the will obviously be evolving as time moves forward.

First let’s look at a summary of the current polling as of August 2, 2019:

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Politico/Morning Consult Biden 32, Sanders 18, Warren 15, Harris 10, Buttigieg 6, O’Rourke 3, Booker 3, Yang 2, Castro 1, Gabbard 1, Steyer 1, Klobuchar 1, Delaney 1
2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Harvard-Harris Biden 34, Sanders 17, Warren 8, Harris 9, Buttigieg 4, O’Rourke 3, Booker 2, Yang 1, Castro 1, Gabbard 0, Steyer 1, Klobuchar 1, Delaney 0

News forecasters’ key takeaways from the two Democratic debates are:

  • Joe Biden still is the front runner.
  • In the first debate, Kamala Harris landed a few good blows against Joe Biden over past racial incidences, which gave her a temporary short-lived bump in the polls.
  • Tulsi Gabbard landed a few good blows against Kamala Harris in the second debate, when she was a prosecutor in California, but did very little to give her any bump in the polls, though may have given Kamala Harris a good knockout blow.
  • Though Tulsi Gabbard has created a buzz, but the DNC insiders just don’t want to accept her.
  • Buttigieg and O’Rourke fails to impress and sink further in the polls.
  • Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are both in striking distance of Joe Biden.
  • The rest of the pack have not seemed to get any traction.

Here are a few other interesting points that may be of interest:

  • There is still time for a dark horse candidate.
  • The rumor mill keeps pushing the story that Joe Biden may eventually pull out due to health reasons. There is the age factor with Joe Biden.
  • Current thinking is that Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren, of the progressive wings of the Democratic party, will eventually be the nominee – Trump seems to be more worried about Elizabeth Warren than Bernie Sanders. There may be an age factor with Bernie Sanders.

News Forecasters’ current view is that Elizabeth Warren may eventually win the nomination, perhaps using a male running mate like Julian Castro (to pick up the male and Hispanic vote, and as a bridge to the DNC insiders). This will obviously evolve over time.

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