China resumed sovereignty over Hong Kong on July 1, 1997, under a “One Country, Two Systems” policy. This has worked reasonably well until recently. Millions over the past 8 weeks have protested against a now suspended extradition bill, have now widened to demand greater democracy and the resignation of Hong Kong’s leader Carrie Lam. For now protests have been limited to pushing and shoving, combated with batons and tear gas. However, fears have been mounting that Beijing would deploy military forces to tackle the city’s worst political crisis in decades, if law and order spirals out of control. Are the Hong Kong protesters soon to understand what it means to be Chinese?
The government said Hong Kong’s 180,000 civil servants must remain politically neutral as the city braced for another wave of protests – they apparently are not listening. More protests are planned. The Chinese army releases anti-riot video seen as warning of what might happen if the protesters go too far. U.S. President Donald Trump has described protests in Hong Kong as “riots” that China will have to deal with itself – giving tacit support for the Chinese government. China has accused others of foreign influence. They are probably right, but most likely China does this too. It is quite convenient for the US to have China embroiled in a Hong Kong controversy. It’s just part of the tit for tat annoyances that are under the covers of the current trade war between China and the U.S. It provides bargaining chips in the negotiations.
So what is the Chinese strategy and what will happen in Hong Kong? News Forecasters believes the Chinese will not deploy in the army, instead parading them around in an ever-present fashion to remind the protesters what may happen. There are already plenty of police already there capable of handling the situation. Hong Kong’s leader Carrie Lam resigns and new elections will occur – a symbolic gesture to the people.
Chinese intelligence have been using the past 8 weeks as a way to identify the “troublemakers.” These folks will disappear, placed on watch lists, jail time, and the more militant ones literally disappear – but all done quietly. The Chinese will wait out the protests, similar to how France has handled the Yellow Vest movement. The Chinese within one year restart the erosion of the “One Country, Two Systems” policy. Did anyone really believe it anyway? Over time the “Two Systems” part of the policy effectively will disappear, though it may take 5 to 15 years. The protesters win the battle but will lose the war – they will need to learn what it means to be Chinese. If you don’t like this and have the capability – leave now, like many others have already.