What has been described as a clown show, the nearly two dozen realistic Democratic candidates for the 2020 U.S. presidential election have been falling over each other on who can give the most “freebies” to voters and competing in the identity victim Olympics. Which candidate will emerge as the sanest, or is there a dark horse candidate waiting in the wings to save the Democrats?
To answer this question we must first look at the criteria needed for this dark horse candidate. First, the candidate must have star power. When the candidate comes to town can they draw crowds of 5 10 or 15,000 people to come to listen to them? None of the current Democratic candidates can do this. Having star power also means the candidate could handle themselves well in the public eye. As an example the current President Donald Trump, when he came to Orlando Florida to announce his 2020 campaign launch he drew crowds of nearly 20,000 people to come to listen to him. Secondly, the candidate must also have, or be able to obtain support from the Democratic elites. Thirdly, the candidate would have to have a reasonably clean past. Finally, the candidate must have the finance to support such an effort – whether that be self-funded or have the ability to tap into the donor base.
After the election of Donald Trump in 2016, it is clear you do not need past political experience to become president. Identities of, race, gender or personal background is also not a defining criterion. The field is wide open for any dark horse candidate that can fit these previously defined criteria. There are a few wannabe president billionaires that would like to run, but they just simply are unknown and do not have star power with voters. Two names do come to mind, but there could be others, John Stewart and Michelle Obama.
Michelle Obama, the spouse of the much loved previous president Barack Obama, has repeatedly been asked if she wants to be involved in politics – a presidential run. She has the star power, liked by the Democratic elites, and could obtain the finances needed from the donor base. She recently has been on a tour to promote her book, which has been very successful. She regularly draws crowds of 1000 even more than 5,000 people to her book signings. Michelle Obama has repeatedly said that she was uninterested, but there have been many attempts to draft her into service. Most recently by Michael Moore. The path to victory for Michelle Obama would be through identity politics and engaging with the Progress of wing of the Democratic party.
John Stewart was a very famous political comedian from The Daily Show on Comedy Central. Again though not interested, John Stewart would instantly grab the imagination of media elites as well as as the political world. Most recently he was instrumental in passing a 911 first responders bill in Congress. If taking the challenge, the donor base, as well as the ability to self-fund would support his candidature. Stewart would be considered an electrifying centrist candidate that could garner support from both political parties – his path to victory.
So what is the likelihood of a dark horse Democratic candidate? News Forecasters believes that there is at least a 25% chance of this possibility. Which is actually quite remarkable. It will all depend on whether the current field of Democratic candidates stumbles and no clear winner emerges in the ongoing recent Democratic debates. However, if this is to happen we will need to start to see movement fairly quickly. A dark horse Democratic candidate will most likely need to start declaring by mid-October 2019 in preparation of the primaries soon to follow.